Transcript
0:00Today we will discuss the despair and hope in Chinese society
0:02I saw an online article the other day
0:04The title may be underestimated by everyone
0:07The level of despair among many young people in Chinese society
0:10The internet says one thing
0:11The author rides past an intersection after get off work
0:13I saw a delivery guy fall on the side of the road
0:15Covered in blood
0:16It looks pretty serious.
0:17The author stops the car to help him lift the electric car
0:20Pick up the thrown battery
0:22Put the takeout boxes scattered on the ground back in place
0:24My brother looks in his early twenties
0:26Sitting on the side of the road
0:27One hand wipes the blood from the face with a tissue
0:29The other hand is still calling the customer
0:32After the author confirmed that he only had some skin trauma
0:33And he biked away.
0:35Brother covers the wound
0:36Didn't say thank you
0:37Just sitting there with empty eyes
0:39Traffic on the road
0:40Lots of pedestrians
0:41Except for the author
0:42No one stops
0:44People just bypass it a little bit
0:46As if you didn't see anything
0:47This made the author think a lot
0:49He concluded that
0:50If you don't pass by
0:51I'm afraid no one will help him
0:53I became an outlier in this society
0:54And apathy is the norm in this society
0:57These young people have no way out
0:59Even the author himself
1:00Chat with colleagues and friends
1:02Always talking about layoffs
1:03What to do after layoffs
1:05In today's era of academic depreciation
1:06Learning no longer leads to a bright future
1:09In China,
1:09a society ruled by the law of the jungle
1:11Deliverymen will continue to be publicly disparaged and insulted
1:14Most girls don't like it,
1:15no car,
1:16no house
1:16Men with no future
1:18But the distance is full of handsome men and beautiful women
1:19Prince Princess Emperor Fairy
1:21There is absolutely no place for them.
1:23Family for them
1:24More pressure.
1:26Neither can provide material support
1:27No psychological support
1:30there are no truly independent
1:32social support system
1:33Can give them even a little mopping
1:35Think about the end
1:35The author is left with only a great despair
1:38Social apathy,
1:39family pressure
1:40Continuously degraded and insulted by public opinion
1:42Can't find a girlfriend
1:43No future
1:44But also have to work under tremendous pressure
1:47To barely survive
1:48And then finally he said something very harsh.
1:50Zhang Yiming saved China
1:52Therefore,
1:52he should be the richest man in China
1:53After I saw this online article
1:55I don't think about what happened to a deliveryman.
1:57It's a deeper problem.
1:59China has come to this day
2:00The current difficulties facing Chinese families
2:02How did the whole process happen?
2:05If we don't make this process clear
2:07Just staying in the present is miserable
2:08Young people have a hard time with this level
2:11That's actually unclear.
2:12Due to the despair of Chinese society today
2:14He is after the cycle at the national level broke
2:17Press down layer by layer
2:19It is pressed into the lives of every ordinary person
2:21So
2:22I want to break this narrative down into two levels
2:24One is at the national level.
2:25One is the family level.
2:27China's economy in the past few decades
2:29The logic is very simple.
2:30Relying on the demographic dividend
2:32The demographic dividend is really two things.
2:34One is a massive labor force
2:35The other is ultra-low wages
2:37Massive labor force coupled with ultra-low wages
2:39It forms an export price advantage
2:41Due to this price advantage
2:42Accumulated huge manufacturing capacity
2:44Wealth through exports
2:45And that wealth is then spent.
2:48Infrastructure and investment
2:49Eventually form a self-reinforcing closed loop of the economy
2:52China's prosperity over the past few decades
2:53On the surface,
2:54it looks like high economic growth
2:55In fact, behind
2:56What's really holding it up is this entire structure.
2:59Low-cost labor for export competitiveness
3:02Export innovation in exchange for investment expansion
3:04Investment expansion drives real estate
3:06Infrastructure consumption
3:08Layer on top of layer.
3:09That is to say
3:10China's original Great Circle
3:12It's built on low-cost labor.
3:14global division of labor
3:15On top of the debt expansion and real estate boom
3:17But this cycle is no longer sustainable.
3:20There are,
3:20I think,
3:21three main reasons.
3:22First
3:22The housing bubble burst
3:23Trigger a balance sheet recession
3:25Further inflationary pressures
3:27Once real estate is no longer a wealth machine
3:29And even begin to devour household assets in turn
3:32Then what he brings is no longer prosperity
3:33It was a collapse of confidence.
3:35When house prices fell,
3:37assets shrank
3:37Families are afraid to consume
3:38Businesses don't see the need
3:40Local finances are also tight
3:41Pushing back further is the lack of consumption power
3:43Factory reduces ex-factory price
3:45Factory profits continue to be compressed
3:46It's not that many companies are not doing things
3:48The more you do it,
3:49the more you lose.
3:50Second,
3:50China's prosperity over the past four decades
3:52It's not just the one that relies on the demographic dividend
3:55The economic cycle itself is supported
3:57The cycle is there.
3:59But the cycle itself
4:00Not enough to support such a great prosperity
4:01It's so exaggerated to really push prosperity up
4:05Debt is leverage
4:07It started during the Wen Jiabao era.
4:09Rising debt
4:10expansion
4:11Debt allows future money to be spent today
4:13Debt is a lot
4:14A non-existent prosperity operation became a reality
4:17But once the debt stops rolling
4:19Prosperity will disappear
4:20Once prosperity is lost
4:22Capital investment will slow down or even go to zero
4:24When capital investment goes to zero
4:25The entire Chinese economic cycle will come to a standstill
4:28The third exit is the road to wealth creation
4:30It's also been held back by geopolitical deterioration.
4:33The reason why China was able to earn money from exports in the past
4:35That's a lot of money.
4:35An important premise is that the global environment is smooth
4:38Western markets are open
4:40China itself has also been in a low profile for a long time
4:42In the development of pragmatic outward learning
4:45But over the years
4:47Wolf war diplomacy is also good
4:48A full-scale confrontation with the United States is also good
4:49The entire international environment has changed
4:52In the past,
4:52that could deeply benefit China
4:53The global environment in which it will be
4:54It's not what it used to be
4:57These three factors add up
4:58The net result is that China's economy is stagnant and falling
5:01The entire economy starts to fail.
5:04The economy loses its operation
5:06The social dimension will immediately
5:07There are two most immediate consequences
5:08One was mass bankruptcies.
5:10The other is mass unemployment.
5:12The cycle at the national level is broken
5:14It turns out that growth masks the problems.
5:17Then it was all exposed
5:19Let's move on to the family level
5:21Over the past two decades
5:22Ordinary Chinese family
5:22In fact,
5:23there is also a very clear set of life cycles
5:25What is this cycle?
5:26Reading test
5:28After graduation,
5:29he entered a big factory
5:30Then go to work and get a high salary
5:32Then get married
5:33Buy a house and have a baby
5:35Put all the resources on the next generation
5:37Re-accumulate babies and re-study
5:39Nine, eight, five.
5:40Enter the big factory again
5:40Buy a house again
5:42That's how parents go,
5:44kid. Repeat.
5:45The logic of struggle at the family level
5:46It goes around this line.
5:49What is the core driving force behind this cycle?
5:51Not happiness
5:52It's a leap in class
5:53Everyone is not pursuing
5:54A good life in a simple sense
5:56People are desperately trying not to fall
5:58What month is born
6:00By reading,
6:01by taking exams
6:02By nine eight five
6:03Enter the big factory
6:04Rely on high wages
6:05Rising house prices
6:06You were just an ordinary family
6:08You just need to squeeze into a good school
6:09I entered a big factory and bought a house
6:11House prices go up
6:12Wages go up
6:13You seem to be in another social hierarchy
6:15If you don't do it
6:16Then you're automatically left behind
6:17In a jungle society like China
6:19Once you fall to a low level
6:21It's not just that life is almost there
6:23But will be squeezed
6:24despised,
6:25bullied.
6:26So the last 20 years
6:27The pervasive anxiety in Chinese cities
6:29It's never just that I want to be better
6:32But I can't lose
6:33I can't fall.
6:34Everyone is not rolling for happiness
6:36Everyone is rolling up to not be left behind
6:38In superimposing the strong comparative psychology of the Chinese people
6:40The amplification of consumerism
6:42The Squeeze of Social Evaluation Systems
6:44This anxiety is getting worse
6:45But here's the thing.
6:46This little cycle at the family level
6:48It's interrupted by a national cycle.
6:51Completely interrupted
6:52The most immediate reason is the collapse in housing prices
6:54The class jump that was originally achieved through real estate
6:57It's gone now.
6:59It turns out that many families think they have bought a house
7:01It's like a case
7:02The end result is to tie six wallets into one set
7:04On shrinking assets
7:05Houses are no longer tools for class leaps
7:08Instead,
7:08it has become a burden for many families
7:10And even more deadly
7:11The trade-off between education and job is also broken
7:14The employment rate of college graduates is less than 20%
7:16Here we are talking about normal white-collar jobs
7:19Not including the so-called triathlon
7:20That kind of platform does odd jobs
7:22The normal employment rate of young people overall
7:24I think it should be much lower than many people imagine
7:27More than 10 million graduates enter the market every year
7:29It is expected to reach 1,000 in 2016.
7:313.25 million
7:32Even some of the most efficient undergraduates on the surface
7:34The employment rate can still be maintained at a high figure
7:37But the proportion of decent employment is higher than in previous years
7:39Has dropped significantly
7:41A large number of graduates end up going to takeout
7:43Online car-hailing live broadcast with goods,
7:44flexible employment of temporary workers
7:46Or graduate and become unemployed
7:48Youth unemployment in official terms
7:50And real social feelings
7:52there is a very large gap
7:53What does that mean?
7:54This means that the chain of education and employment in China
7:57For the average family
7:59Already investing in the future
8:00Becomes an increasingly heavy cost of silence
8:02You start at the age of three.
8:04Kindergarten Elementary School Junior High School University
8:07Many Chinese children have been reading books for 20 years
8:09The family has full support behind it
8:11Parents take money and time
8:13Take energy
8:14The ultimate goal is a decent job
8:17A relatively high social position
8:19It's called a class jump
8:21But now children have been reading books for 20 years
8:23Finally came out and couldn't find a job
8:25This despair is not the despair of the child alone
8:28It's the desperation of the whole family
8:29Because where family despair lies
8:31You are not unemployed for a year or two
8:33It could be long-term unemployment.
8:35I can't see any future
8:37Chicken baby 20 years in many cities
8:39A family's investment in their children
8:41Millions at every turn
8:42Especially those big factory families
8:44Urban middle-class family
8:45All hope to achieve the next round of monthly birth through children
8:48Suddenly
8:49They discovered that
8:50The money spent on children over the years
8:52time and energy
8:53It may have all lost its original meaning
8:55It's not just disappointment
8:57It's disillusionment.
8:58There is a post online describing chicken babies
8:59I find it particularly vivid
9:01He said that parents in Beijing Haidian District
9:02Slash-and-burn farming.
9:04Chicken baby noodles have vegetable color godson
9:06These families make half a million dollars a year.
9:08A million things.
9:09But you see real people
9:11Many people are better off than
9:11The working class in eighteenth-tier cities is still simple
9:14One by one unkempt
9:15I don't comb my hair,
9:16I don't wash my face.
9:17Mainly a gray-headed dirt face,
9:18yellow-faced and thin
9:19Not particular about wearing
9:20Don't pay attention to crazy where did the money go
9:22Just look at the classes they sign up their children for
9:24Mathematical Olympiad English
9:26Piano swimming all the way down
9:29Hundreds of thousands a year can't stop it at all
9:30Such a family
9:31It's almost belt-tightening.
9:33The chicken baby family is exhausted
9:34I am willing to eat bran and throat vegetables for my children
9:37Life is willing to retreat to the primitive society
9:39Why is the relationship between husband and wife still stable?
9:41Because that is no ordinary husband and wife relationship
9:43It's about battle,
9:44friendship.
9:44Husband is afraid that his wife will run away
9:46No one helped him with the baby
9:47The wife is afraid that her husband will run away
9:49and no one will make money for the baby
9:50The couple just carry it together for the child
9:53Die for the so-called future
9:54Now that's an exaggeration,
9:55of course.
9:56But he was very expressive.
9:58Because he suddenly put many cities in China into the middle class
10:00The true state of the family over the years has been written down
10:03The problem is that these families raise children
10:06Many are really excellent
10:08But the Chinese society
10:09China's system
10:10The employment environment in China
10:12There is no way to give
10:13So many outstanding children
10:14Provide enough space
10:15Many people end up taking the public exam or going abroad
10:18So China has become the greatest talent in the world
10:20One of the outgoing countries
10:22You pay the highest educational anxiety
10:24The highest household cost
10:25Finally send people away
10:27Or push people into a narrow
10:28In the poor exam machine
10:30University of Oxford
10:31There's a very important quote by an anthropology professor.
10:33Words he said
10:34The entire life of Chinese young people
10:36Was shaped by the idea
10:38As long as you study hard
10:40After trying hard
10:41You will have a job and a high heart
10:42A decent life awaits you
10:44Now they find
10:45This promise no longer holds true
10:47It's not just about work.
10:49The problem of diminished opportunities or a shortage of income
10:51It's driving their dreams of working hard.
10:53itself shattered
10:54And it wasn't just disappointment.
10:56It was deep disillusionment.
10:57Young people will find out
10:59Own life
11:00May be suddenly destroyed by some tremendous force
11:02sudden change
11:03This forces them to rethink the whole of China
11:05The organizational model of society and collective life in China
11:08Veteran French journalist Donid
11:10There are similar judgments
11:11He said that when the myth of economic growth is shattered
11:13Youth unemployment has soared to an official level
11:16When you don't want to announce it
11:17The social contract is essentially bankrupt
11:20That's when young people find out
11:21They put up with so much social control
11:24So much discipline
11:24So much obedience
11:25In the end,
11:26it can't be exchanged
11:27It was promised to them
11:28Financial returns and a stable life
11:30This deception
11:31Feeling betrayed
11:32It is itself a source of despair
11:34Gao Shanwen's summary has been heard by many people
11:36It's called the elderly
11:38Dead young
11:40A middle-aged man with no love in life
11:41Why did this sentence suddenly hit a lot of people?
11:44Because he caught China today
11:46The true atmosphere of society
11:46Young people don't have jobs.
11:48No sense of the future
11:49Declining willingness to spend
11:50Declining willingness to buy a house
11:51Marriage and childbirth are in retreat.
11:52What about middle-aged people?
11:54Mortgage children's education
11:55Parents' pension
11:56The working pressure is all on the body
11:58The elderly are relatively stable
11:59Because they no longer have to deal with the job market
12:02No need to fight for class leap
12:03Don't have to bear so many future costs anymore
12:05Current affairs commentator Deng Yuwen further pointed out that
12:08The deterioration of group living space
12:10Often with the state
12:11Development strategies and routes are closely related
12:13The past ten years
12:14Especially in the past five years
12:15Xi Jinping implements political repression at home
12:18Foreign policy confrontation with the United States
12:19On the one hand, it leads to
12:20The United States' containment and blockade of China
12:22On the other hand,
12:23it also makes the authorities themselves
12:24Keep moving towards closure
12:25Decoupling from the West
12:27Overlay three years of extreme epidemic prevention and control
12:29Turn the entire Chinese society into a large prison
12:31The psychological impact on young people is profound
12:34Young people are already full of imagination about the future
12:37I was interrupted so abruptly
12:39To this day
12:40The negative emotions have sunk
12:42You can't pull it back by relying on official propaganda.
12:44But my judgment is a little bit more pessimistic than that.
12:48I think all of this is happening in China today
12:50It's just getting started.
12:53Why?
12:53Because what we see now
12:55Mainly due to the economic downturn
12:57No.
12:58Really deeper,
12:59longer,
13:00harder impact
13:01Still ahead
13:02And that's the population cliff.
13:04I moved to Japan three years ago.
13:05When I first arrived in Japan
13:07The greatest feeling is
13:08The current negative mood in Japanese society
13:10Much like China.
13:11People think the future is hopeless
13:13It feels like you can see your head at a glance
13:14Although the Japanese do not hold out much hope for the future
13:16But they don't have the desperation of the Chinese
13:18Why is that?
13:19Because the Japanese are already growing low but rich
13:22In an orderly environment with support
13:24He continued to live for more than 30 years
13:26They have adapted to this state
13:27But China is different.
13:29China has been growing for the last 30 years.
13:31You're used to going up.
13:33I'm used to it.
13:34Get used to it,
13:34it will be better if you just boil it for a while
13:36The whole system
13:37The whole society
13:38The entire family.
13:38The entire mental structure
13:40It's all based on growth logic
13:41Now there's a sudden headwind
13:42And China doesn't do the same welfare as Japan.
13:44The underpinning government did not advance for China either
13:47Social Preparation for Fathers Aging
13:49So many Chinese people feel very uncomfortable all of a sudden
13:51From life to ecology to mentality,
13:53it has collapsed very badly
13:55The reason for the collapse is actually very direct
13:57The first is that there is no deposit in the pocket.
13:59Panic why no deposit
14:01Because I went to buy a house
14:02All six wallets went in
14:04The second is hopelessness.
14:06Extremely confused
14:07For these two reasons
14:08Bottom in pocket
14:09I'm not sure
14:10The problem is that many people
14:11there is still an old one in my heart
14:13Thought of the times
14:14Just like the real estate beliefs of the past
14:16I always feel that if I fall,
14:17it will grow back
14:18I always feel that the economy will go back after a while
14:21China, today,
14:22this is no ordinary cyclical fluctuation.
14:24This is not
14:25the logic of falling down and getting up
14:26The underlying logic has changed.
14:29That's why I keep saying it's just
14:30Just started
14:33Mainly the result of the economic downturn
14:36And the population cliff left by Planned Parenthood
14:38The stage of really large-scale pressure
14:41A lot of people don't feel it.
14:43I think it would be better if there were fewer people.
14:45Resources are more relaxed
14:46Less competition
14:47But that's a very naive view.
14:49And you just have to look at what's happening in Japan today.
14:51If not for Japan's complete industrial system
14:54Technology patent
14:54Social welfare and institutional resilience
14:56Japan in today's demographics
14:58It's already collapsed
14:59China does not have the Japanese bottom support system.
15:01And the demographic cliff is already approaching.
15:03There are two passages on the Internet that are particularly telling
15:05One is the case of Shanghai and Pudong.
15:07Some people say that their daughter will start work soon
15:09It turns out that there are three classes in one grade
15:10Now to merge into two classes
15:12Because there are only 64 students in a grade.
15:14The Education Bureau says there are up to 35 students in a class.
15:16it is necessary to material a class
15:17What about the extra teachers?
15:18No contract renewal
15:19The other is the Northeast
15:20Five years ago,
15:21there were 110 million people in the Northeast.
15:23More than 400,000 newborns can be born a year
15:25By 2025
15:26A total of 290,000 newborns were born in Northeast China
15:282.9 children are born per 1,000 people
15:31This is no ordinary descent.
15:32This is a northeast county seat of 100,000 people on the cliff.
15:35Only about 300 children are born a year
15:37After that,
15:37one school in one county seat is enough
15:39Elementary school and junior high school together
15:41High school can even be full
15:42Because there aren't enough people.
15:44But there are at least two dimensions to the population crisis.
15:46One is a precipitous decline in the new population
15:49Because young people are becoming increasingly unmarried and infertile
15:51Another is an aging population.
15:53This will happen naturally
15:54There are fewer young people.
15:55The elderly are growing
15:57The pension behind
15:58Social security medical insurance
15:59Financial Education
16:00Local commercial employment structure
16:02All will be affected by chain shock
16:04Twenty years later
16:05Basically a working young man
16:07Paid social security
16:07Supporting a retired person
16:09The social security you pay now
16:10How much will it mean by then?
16:12You just need to think about this seriously.
16:15My heart will get cold
16:16So demographic problems are not the same as economic problems.
16:18Economic issues,
16:19you can also use policy stimulus
16:20Financial means
16:21Currency action to fix a repair and drag a drag
16:23Demographic problems are often unavoidable
16:25Can't be changed
16:26You can't reconcile,
16:27you can only passively accept you
16:29The only thing to do is to prepare in advance
16:31But these preparations alone will not change the general trend
16:34Of course,
16:34the Communist Party of China is not prepared
16:35He even spent his future money first
16:38So-called ultra-long-term special treasury bonds
16:40To put it bluntly
16:40It is to spend the money of children and grandchildren first
16:43Think about it.
16:44An economy that has started to decline
16:46We hit an impenetrable population cliff.
16:48This is the real despair
16:50So I say
16:51This year is likely to be the next ten years
16:53Best year ever
16:55Many people are uncomfortable
16:56But reality doesn't get better just because you're not feeling well
16:58The level of despair in Chinese society
17:00Really seriously underestimated why
17:03Because in the past,
17:04the income of many families
17:05It's already enough,
17:07just enough
17:08First of all,
17:08many families empty six wallets.
17:10Bought a house in the last five years
17:11Another epidemic
17:13Beaten enough
17:14After the epidemic
17:15Even if you don't get laid off
17:16Even if the income doesn't drop too much
17:18Even if there are no major changes in the family
17:20You are just enough to maintain
17:21As long as any link in the middle falls
17:24The whole house will collapse
17:25Because there is no extra buffer money.
17:27So you think about China's middle class.
17:29How much has collapsed?
17:31You know
17:32The despair of today's society
17:33It's not as shallow as many people think
17:36But here it is.
17:36I want to go one more level.
17:38Because if the video just stops here
17:40That leaves only the word despair
17:42And what I really want to say is
17:44China's desperation is indeed underestimated
17:46But individuals cannot directly sentence themselves to death for this
17:48Moving forward,
17:49most of Chinese history
17:51It's not really good for ordinary people
17:53There may have been a brief period of good times
17:55But you can really enjoy it
17:57It's often just a small part of a generation
17:59Time so
18:01In such a fragile environment
18:02In an era of accelerating decline
18:05Individuals can't rot together
18:06Why did I say that?
18:08Because I believe more and more in one thing
18:09Human skills don't go to waste
18:12You look useless today
18:14Doesn't mean it won't work in the future
18:15After the resumption of the college entrance examination in 1978
18:17There are many people who can get full marks in English
18:19You need to know
18:20Learning English during the Cultural Revolution can get you killed
18:22But there are people who learn it secretly,
18:24and they learn it very well.
18:25And these are the people.
18:27It became the middle class of social development after the Cultural Revolution
18:29What does it mean to resist this matter?
18:31Explain one's preparation
18:32It doesn't have to be cashed in the straight line in front of you.
18:35But he's going to come into play at some point.
18:38I'll just give you my example.
18:39After I graduated from college,
18:40I went to Xi'an TV Station
18:41Practical work there for a year and a month
18:44Then I went back to my hometown
18:46when I was at Xi'an TV Station
18:48I already know
18:49I probably won't keep doing this in the future
18:51Because my family is an electrical system person.
18:53I still have to go back to take over later
18:54Stay with your parents
18:55From that moment on
18:56It was like garbage time.
18:58Because you didn't plan to
18:59Stay on this line for a long time
19:00But the problem is that when I started doing self-media later
19:03I suddenly realized
19:04I learned to shoot in TV
19:06Writing expresses content organization
19:09No waste at all
19:10it was all reused
19:11I work for Xi'an TV Station
19:13It's already 2009
19:14After all these years
19:15I was able to pick it up again today
19:17And it really changed the course of my life.
19:19So I particularly don't want you to look now
19:21Society sucks
19:22As soon as you see that there is no road ahead,
19:24just lie flat
19:24Just give up
19:26Don't do that.
19:27You can be pessimistic.
19:28But don't ruin yourself
19:30You can wake up
19:30But don't stop accumulating
19:32Whether you are moist or not
19:33Whether you go or not
19:34Whether you have to stay here for many more years or not
19:36You have to prepare yourself
19:38You don't know when
19:40An opportunity will suddenly fall in front of you.
19:41And can you pick it up?
19:43It depends on whether you were prepared before
19:45All the skills we have
19:46Nothing will be wasted.
19:49It's not just not wasteful.
19:51It may also be in one of your complete
19:53Unexpected node
19:54Rewrite your life
19:56But at the same time
19:57I must also put another one that is particularly prevalent today
20:00Also particularly contradictory to college students generally
20:02Make the misjudgment of direction clear
20:04That is the postgraduate entrance examination
20:06Nowadays,
20:06in Chinese society
20:07Except for a few Draco
20:08Many undergraduates from ordinary families
20:10After graduation
20:11There are basically no decent job opportunities
20:13So it's logical to be pushed to the next step
20:15Just continue to study graduate school
20:17On the surface
20:18That seems like a rational choice.
20:19Undergraduate is not easy to find a job
20:21Then go to graduate school
20:21Two more years,
20:22maybe things will be better.
20:25Is it meaningful to attend graduate school?
20:26Depends on a premise
20:28Do you have a judgment about the future?
20:30Two years later.
20:31Will the situation in China be better than it is now?
20:33Will the employment environment improve?
20:35Will there be more jobs?
20:36If so,
20:37of course it makes sense to go to graduate school.
20:39But if not
20:39Or worse.
20:41So you're going to graduate school for two years.
20:42A lot of times I'm not improving myself
20:44It's actively delaying yourself to a worse
20:47Click to face a worse job market
20:50That's why I say
20:51In the current job market in China
20:53Many ordinary household machinery
20:55Support children to go to graduate school
20:56It was a really bad decision.
20:58The problem is not the book itself
21:00They're not making judgments about the future.
21:02They just habitually think
21:04The future may be better
21:06Wait a minute,
21:06boil a minute
21:07Maybe it will recover in two years.
21:09But this assumption itself has no basis
21:11Now China as a whole is going down
21:14The extent to which you went out looking for a job today
21:17There is a high probability that it will not be more serious in two years.
21:19Many families still regard postgraduate entrance
21:20examination as the default answer
21:21This is not about helping children.
21:23It's pushing the child through a narrower door
21:25So why did I say earlier
21:26The despair of many people in China today
21:28Not necessarily because there is no food to eat
21:30But because there is no way to go
21:32A lot of people really break down
21:34It's not that I can't afford a bowl of noodles today.
21:35But the house is going to be cut off
21:37There are still a lot of difficulties in children's education
21:39Parents' medical expenses are weighing on them
21:40Unstable job
21:41Revenues are falling
21:42And there is no solution yet.
21:44It's not that most people can't eat
21:45There's nowhere to go.
21:47There are many social contradictions in China today
21:49The most terrifying thing is not the big contradiction
21:52It's unsolvable.
21:53And the Communist Party of China itself has no solution
21:55Many policy actions are ostensibly like governance
21:58there is no way anymore.
22:00We can only continue to learn from society
22:01Peel another layer of skin from the people
22:04Addressing the Communist Party of China's own urgent needs
22:06I'll push it a little further.
22:07There are still many young people who believe that
22:09China has undergone reform and opening up
22:10Forty years of development achievements
22:11So almost today
22:13But it's been pretty stable for 40 years.
22:15This view
22:16I think it just means you're too young
22:19China's 40 years
22:20Not a smooth upward line at all
22:22Chinese people's lives are really a little better
22:25I think it's only seven or eight years
22:26Within ten years at most
22:28Look further ahead.
22:28It's all ups and downs
22:30It's all tossing
22:30After Deng Xiaoping's southern tour speech in 1992
22:33The economy is rapidly overheating
22:34Investment is skyrocketing and inflationary pressures are tremendous
22:36By 1993
22:37Zhu Rongji's sixteen articles come out
22:39macro tightening
22:40Rectify the financial order of many enterprises
22:42Especially non-state-owned enterprises and township enterprises
22:45The capital chain was broken all of a sudden
22:46During the 1997 Asian financial crisis
22:48Shanghai house prices once fell to 3,000 yuan per square meter
22:51It's done to the rich.
22:53China has never been smooth sailing
22:55It's just that every generation
22:56Under the authoritarian power of the Communist Party
22:58streaking style
22:58Just different
23:00China's economic model and
23:02The reason why society has undergone tremendous changes
23:04There are two main reasons.
23:05One is that the Internet has turned the entire
23:07The way society works has changed
23:09Another is that people have changed
23:11In the past, many people were really
23:11I don't know how the outside world works
23:13Now many people have seen the world
23:15At least on the Internet
23:16Seen other ways of life
23:18So the psychological structure of the Chinese has also changed
23:20The way society judges has changed.
23:21And there was a particularly critical watershed.
23:22I always thought so
23:232008 Beijing Olympic Games
23:25Eight years ago
23:26Many Chinese officials have visited the United States
23:28The first sentence is that I am here to learn
23:30After 2008
23:32That mentality slowly changes
23:33You see a lot of officials later go out
23:35Make people feel
23:36It's not that we're here to learn
23:38We are here to save you
23:40It's not just diplomacy that has changed.
23:41It's a shift in the mindset of the establishment.
23:44A lot of it left a little bit of pragmatism.
23:46Also after this stage
23:48It starts to swell more and more.
23:49It gets stiffer.
23:50Increasingly out of touch with reality.
23:53You have to say whether the Chinese have suffered in the past 40 years or not
23:55Of course it hurts
23:56The economy under the leadership of the Communist Party
23:58It's just that there are too many noodles and add water.
23:59More water plus noodles
24:01Now many young people see him go to production capacity
24:02Fine at every turn
24:03I feel rough already,
24:05I tell you
24:06Ten years ago,
24:06twenty years ago,
24:07he went to work more roughly.
24:08He was never a fine ruler
24:10smooth transition
24:11Gently tuned system
24:12He's always hitting the wall and slamming on the brakes
24:15After braking,
24:16step on the accelerator again
24:17under the leadership of the Communist Party
24:18There is a theme that cannot be escaped
24:20Just suffer
24:21One more before me
24:22Classic cases of cognitive bias seen in a few days
24:24Kaifeng, Henan
24:25There is a teacher who works in a primary school
24:27His son graduated from Shangqiu Normal School
24:29Unemployed since graduation
24:30Originally,
24:31the home and school have already communicated.
24:32Plan to spend
24:33400,000 yuan to buy a teaching position for my son
24:34As a result,
24:35school leaders recently returned the money
24:37The current birth rate in China
24:39Are you still willing to spend?
24:40400,000 to buy a primary school job
24:42It is traditional cognition and reality.
24:45Seriously asymmetric
24:46What's even more ridiculous is
24:47China still has
24:48Willing to break heads and find relationships to become teachers
24:51Because they misjudge the future
24:53They think the teaching position is still
24:55It used to be more stable the further back
24:56The further you go,
24:57the more valuable you are.
24:58But you only have to look at the birth population data
25:00Many places
25:01In the future,
25:02the position of primary school teacher will directly disappear
25:04There aren't that many students at all
25:05That's why I keep saying
25:06China is the most missing piece of the country
25:08It's not about big plans.
25:10It was the media.
25:12The media in the true sense
25:13The media is not for making people rich
25:15The media is first and foremost to help everyone avoid disasters
25:18Should be a lookout
25:19Should tell you
25:19Where is in front of him,
25:21he can't go
25:22Where will there be problems in the future?
25:23But the problem in China is that the media has been castrated
25:26He can't warn
25:28Can only advertise
25:29He cannot demine society.
25:31I can only sing praises for all my strength
25:32And as a result,
25:33people are massively misjudging the future.
25:35Keep going when you should have turned
25:37I thought the road was open before the bridge was broken
25:39After finally falling
25:41I just realized that there is no bridge in front of me at all
25:43Speaking of which
25:43Here's another logical and cognitive example.
25:45Share with everyone
25:47many people like to say
25:48Without the Communist Party of China,
25:49there would be no reform and opening up
25:50No reform and opening up
25:51Where is the life with meat now?
25:54this sentence doesn't stand at all
25:55Without the CCP,
25:56there is no need for reform and opening up at all
25:58The so-called reform and opening up
25:59In essence,
26:00the Communist Party of China itself first
26:01Things got cornered
26:03They follow socialism
26:04I'm starving myself to death
26:05Forced to take a little less control
26:07Let go of society
26:09China's true development achievements over the years
26:12It's all done by the common people themselves
26:13It was created by the people themselves
26:15With the Communist Party
26:16The so-called advanced nature of socialism
26:18It doesn't matter a penny
26:19Communism can only bring poverty and poverty
26:21Then today,
26:22during the economic downturn
26:24What should the Communist Party really do?
26:26It's relaxation,
26:27not tightening.
26:28Whether it is economic management or social management
26:31Should relax
26:32Let society recover itself
26:34Let the common people catch their breath
26:36Let the vitality of the people grow again
26:38And what did he do today?
26:39Difficult everywhere
26:40If you can get a penalty,
26:41you can get a penalty.
26:42Can manage though
26:43For example,
26:44far-reaching fishing for private enterprises
26:45Weighing fines for electric vehicles
26:47Strike down on the Internet platform economy
26:49Targeted removal of low-end people
26:50The fourth phase of the gold tax will be removed from the local tax
26:52China was an open country ten years ago
26:54Dynamic country
26:55I'm doing this now
26:57You said it's not going in the opposite direction?
26:58There are still many people who feel that the situation at that time
27:00Who will be the president of China?
27:01China will come to this
27:04I don't see it that way.
27:05A lot of deterioration that could not have happened
27:07Many could not have gone to this extreme
27:10thing
27:10It was pushed to the extreme under Xi Jinping
27:13Ancient Jintao period
27:14there are also a lot of structural bad debts
27:15There are also many problems
27:16But after Xi Jinping came up
27:18Not to fix,
27:19but to amplify.
27:20Not a return to common sense
27:21It's increasingly out of touch with common sense.
27:24So I keep emphasizing
27:25Analyzing China must look at policies
27:27It must depend on personnel
27:29It doesn't make sense for you to just read the leaders' speeches every day.
27:32Governance is essentially two things.
27:34One is policy.
27:35One is personnel
27:36You understand these two things
27:39Why has China become what it is today?
27:40So all day long the video is at the end
27:42My conclusion is actually quite clear
27:46It's seriously underestimated.
27:48This is no ordinary cyclical fluctuation.
27:50It's that the underlying logic has completely changed
27:52And it's only just beginning.
27:54The population crisis is still waiting
27:56The break of the education chain
27:57The break of the employment chain
27:58The pressure of social security and medical insurance
28:00The pressure of local finances
28:01It will all come out layer by layer
28:03Many people still think it's just a little harder today
28:05Just a little more and it's over
28:06I don't think so
28:08I think it's just the beginning
28:10But precisely because it's just the beginning
28:13An individual can't sentence himself to death first
28:15Your skills will not be in vain
28:17What you learn today
28:18What you practice
28:19What you accumulate
28:20Even if it seems useless now
28:22It may be at some point in the future
28:24Re-connect to your destiny
28:25Whether you last well or not
28:27Whether you leave or not
28:28Whether you
28:28Do you have to stay here for many more years
28:32Because opportunities don't come every day
28:34But when opportunities do fall
28:35You are not prepared
28:37He is not yours
28:38Prepare in advance
28:38Maybe not change the outcome of the whole era
28:41But at least it can change you in this era
28:43Will it be completely crushed
28:44After watching this video
28:45Let's start preparing
28:46Because of this desperation in China
28:48It's just the beginning of a large area
Mind Map
Loading mind map…
Viral Breakdown
Hook (first 3 seconds)
- Verbatim opening: "Today we will discuss the despair and hope in Chinese society."
- Hook pattern: Bold claim + contrast ("despair and hope").
- Why it stops scroll: It promises a taboo, emotionally charged topic (despair in Chinese society) and a rare counterbalance (hope), triggering immediate curiosity and a sense of forbidden insight.
Emotional Rhythm
- Curiosity (0:00–0:05): "Despair and hope" sets up a puzzle.
- Empathy + tension (0:05–0:45): Vivid story of injured delivery guy ignored by crowd — visceral, relatable pain.
- Resonance + anxiety (0:45–2:00): Broadens to young people's hopelessness (layoffs, no future, family pressure).
- Surprise / twist (2:00–2:10): "Zhang Yiming saved China" — a jarring, provocative line that breaks the mournful tone.
- Intellectual relief (2:10–end): Shifts to systemic analysis (national cycle, housing bubble, debt, geopolitics) — gives viewers a framework, not just emotion.
- Climax: The "chicken baby" family portrait — visceral, heartbreaking description of Haidian parents sacrificing everything, ending with "husband and wife are not ordinary relationship, it's battle friendship."
Keyword Density
- Despair — emotional core, repeated ~8 times; drives emotional pull and shareability.
- Cycle / cycle is broken — structural concept, repeated ~10 times; algorithmic reach (high-value analytical keyword).
- Family / family level — repeated ~12 times; bridges macro and micro, drives relatability.
- Young people — repeated ~7 times; targets core demographic, algorithmic reach.
- House / housing bubble — repeated ~9 times; high-search-volume economic term.
- Debt / leverage — repeated ~6 times; signals financial literacy, algorithmic depth.
- Class leap / fall — repeated ~5 times; emotional pull (fear of falling).
- Chicken baby — repeated ~5 times; culturally specific, high emotional resonance.
- National level — repeated ~6 times; frames authority, algorithmic credibility.
- Zhang Yiming — repeated once but highly memorable; triggers controversy and sharing.
Why It Spreads
- Emotional hook + taboo topic: The opening "despair and hope" signals a forbidden conversation about Chinese society's dark side. This breaks the platform's typical positivity filter, triggering curiosity and sharing.
- Personal story as entry point: The delivery guy bleeding alone, ignored by everyone — a concrete, visual, morally charged scene. Viewers instantly imagine themselves in that moment. It's not abstract; it's a gut punch.
- Jarring, shareable line: "Zhang Yiming saved China" — this is the viral bomb. It's provocative, controversial, and ties a specific billionaire to systemic despair. People will screenshot, quote, argue, and share it.
- Structural explanation reduces helplessness: After the emotional low, the speaker offers a clear, layered cause (national cycle → family cycle → broken). This gives viewers a sense of understanding, which they then share to signal intelligence or insight.
- Relatable archetypes: "Chicken baby parents," "delivery guy," "graduate with no job" — these are instantly recognizable characters in Chinese society. Each viewer knows someone like this, making the video feel personal and urgent.
What You Can Steal
- Start with a vivid, morally charged micro-story. Don't open with statistics. Open with a scene that forces the viewer to feel something (pity, anger, injustice). The delivery guy bleeding alone is worth 100 data points.
- Plant a controversial, quotable line early. "Zhang Yiming saved China" is the video's engine. It's not just a conclusion; it's a weapon. Create one line that people will argue over — that's your shareability.
- Frame despair as a solvable puzzle. After the emotional hit, pivot to a clear, layered analysis (national → family → broken cycle). Viewers share not just to vent, but to feel they understand the problem. Give them a framework they can repeat.
