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0:00I have 24 years in aviation safety and accident investigation so
0:05Viewer Discretions advised listener discretions advised because we're going to
0:09watch a clip from
0:11the aircraft accident in Florida today that's getting
0:14every conspiracy theorist in the world analyzing it and
0:19then I'm going to break down what I think actually
0:21happened based upon my experience and the publicly available audio
0:26and video footage
0:3072 Bravo Delta three five zero moderate turbulence plus your minus
0:36okay now 700 feet 600 feet first
0:41the clip is hard to watch the audio is worse
0:44what you just heard was the aircraft checking on with
0:48a different air traffic control area inside Miami Center
0:54they were reporting turbulence plus or minus 700 feet oscillations
0:59which means they weren't able to hold a
1:01level altitude because of the turbulence in the air
1:04now there were thunderstorms in the area
1:07based upon what I can publicly find they were on courses to avoid the
1:12most severe cells
1:17the Roger Say outsider said this
1:19negative 47 degrees Celsius or managing
1:22the ice but it is moderate turbulence or directly point November 7 two two Bravo
1:27Delta Roger let me know if
1:28you need anything else I'm reporting you to my airspace right now
1:31thank you if you have any better rides uh let us know
1:35November 2 Bravo Delta that the right to improve in my airspace to uh
1:39kind of far outside of the right now you can expect that ride ahead
1:43so right there air traffic control was just getting normal stuff
1:46for a pilot report what's the air temperature what's type of
1:50icing are you experiencing
1:51and then giving information like hey
1:54when the pilot asks you can't expect
1:56the turbulence to get better as you get further into my airspace
2:01this normal interactions between a pilot and air traffic control
2:05project your brother Delta now we're picking up precipitation
2:08we need some client 3 7:00 able to have a Delta
2:137 2 2 Bravo Delta
2:14Roger Final maintain final 3
2:167:00 no further right than your present heading for traffic
2:195 3 7 0 2 Bravo Delta
2:21so the aircraft was already experiencing
2:24icing they then reported that they were getting precipitation at the same time
2:28now NASA says that at that altitude at that temperature
2:34they shouldn't be it's too cold to truly get super cold
2:40icing so they could have still been accumulating
2:43icing but they had previously told
2:46air traffic control that they were managing their icing really well so
2:51we don't know what happened
2:52but air traffic control when they requested the climb to 37,000 feet that 3 7 0
2:58approved that climb and told them don't turn further right
3:01because there's traffic there
3:03but they were already on a course that would have kept
3:05them away from the worst of the thunderstorms 7 2 2 Bravo Delta
3:10we're just having 8,000 Mayday Mayday we're just running 10,000 feet per minute
3:15No. 7 2 2 Bravo Delta Roger
3:18a Mayday Mayday call like that is a indicator to air traffic control and to
3:22all of the other pilots to shut up
3:24and listen because I have something going on as a pilot
3:27as an air traffic controller you key in on that and everybody in the room
3:32keys in on that to provide support to that pilot
3:34and that air traffic controller working that aircraft
3:38they reported
3:39seconds after initiating their climb according to this Flight radar 24
3:45flight profile that they were descending 8,000 and 10,000 feet per minute
3:50from this point forward listener discretion is advised because
3:56in 24 years of doing this this is one of the hardest to hear
4:02audios that I have listened to and I've listened to hundreds of accidents
4:07the call emergency 72 Bravo Delta
4:10we are in an oversea condition you're sending 25 hours to per minute
4:14there's a couple things that I keyed in on listening to this audio
4:18and comparing it to the footage
4:22that we have of the brief glimpse of the aircraft before it impacts the ground
4:26it is missing its horizontal stabilizer
4:29the horizontal stabilizer in a Lear 60 is a
4:32high profile t tail they call it stabilizer at the top of the tail
4:39of an aircraft
4:40and in an overspeed condition especially in negative G
4:43overspeed condition which this aircraft likely occurred they
4:47are known to separate from the aircraft and without that horizontal stabilizer
4:51you cannot recover a dive so this
4:56is likely why in that footage it is missing its detail November 7 2 2 Bravo
5:02Delta Roger out to your discretion let me know what you need
5:08we're gonna crash into the ground 7 2 2 Bravo Delta
5:13I'm here with you talk to me as a former
5:16aircraft controller this controller right now is living every controller's
5:21nightmare as they're talking to an aircraft
5:25they're feeling helpless there's nothing they can do to help this plane that
5:30is going to crash
5:32there's nothing they can do they can hope
5:34that somehow miraculously they recover
5:41but there's nothing they can do
5:43and this controller is doing an excellent job
5:46keeping his composure keeping calm and trying to just talk to the pilot
5:53to get information and to help keep them calm
5:57this is one of those things why we need our traffic controllers
6:02we are just having a 22,000 feet and we are banking
6:12November 2
6:24November 2 Bravo Delta November 2 Bravo Delta how do you hear
6:30November 2 Bravo Delta Miami
6:33I cannot tell you exactly what happened with this aircraft
6:37I can tell you that despite the conspiracy theories it will not be
6:42a missile off of Palm Beach Airport or Mar a Lago
6:46the air crew did not report an explosion
6:48they did not report decompression they did not report
6:51anything other than we need to climb
6:54and then a rapid decent
6:57you can hear at the end of the clip that the controller
7:00knew there was nothing left you can do
7:03that clip goes on longer than that I cut it for the sake of time
7:10and the longer it goes on the more
7:11you can hear the controller resigned to the fact that
7:14people an unknown number to him just lost their lives in total
7:19two flight crew and seven passengers perished in this accident
7:24the conspiracy theories are already running rampant
7:27but based on my years of experience
7:31only two things cause a rapid descent like this
7:35severe super cold icing causing a loss of control
7:40or a mechanical failure both of which are possible in this situation based upon
7:44the whether the flight conditions and
7:47what they were reporting
7:50but I cannot make that determination and it's not for me
7:53now if the NTSB is able to recover enough flight recorder data and
8:00enough of the airframe they will
8:03make that determination and I say if because this aircraft hit
8:09the ground adjacent to a roadway with enough force that the hole
8:15is tens of feet deep tens of feet wide
8:18and with enough force that it buckled
8:20inches of asphalt adjacent to that impact site
8:24I told you that I would tell you what I thought occurred
8:27but I cannot tell you that because I will not speculate in this instance
8:31we know that the aircraft descended up to 30,000 feet per minute
8:35and rapidly went from 35,000 feet to the surface
8:41and portions of the airframe were missing
8:45shortly before it impacted the ground
8:48that is all we know at this time
8:50I feel for the families I feel for the pilots I feel for
8:54all of
8:54the pilots on frequency that listen to this the controllers that worked it
8:59because they all have a heavy burden to carry tonight
9:04and I hope that they get the help that they need
9:07because they are going to need it
